Air quality modeling and mortality impact of fine particles reduction policies in Spain

Background: In recent years, Spain has implemented a number of air quality control measures that are expected to lead to a future reduction in fine particle concentrations and an ensuing positive impact on public health. Objectives: We aimed to assess the impact on mortality attributable to a reduction in fine particle levels in Spain in 2014 in relation to the estimated level for 2007. Methods: To estimate exposure, we constructed fine particle distribution models for Spain for 2007 (reference scenario) and 2014 (projected scenario) with a spatial resolution of 16x16 km2. In a second step, we used the concentration-response functions proposed by cohort studies carried out in Europe (European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects and Rome longitudinal cohort) and North America (American Cancer Society cohort, Harvard Six Cities study and Canadian national cohort) to calculate the number of attributable annual deaths corresponding to all causes, all non-accidental causes, ischemic heart disease and lung cancer among persons aged over 25 years (2005-2007 mortality rate data). We examined the effect of the Spanish demographic shift in our analysis using 2007 and 2012 population figures. Results: Our model suggested that there would be a mean overall reduction in fine particle levels of 1mg/m3 by 2014. Taking into account 2007 population data, between 8 and 15 all-cause deaths per 100,000 population could be postponed annually by the expected reduction in fine particle levels. For specific subgroups, estimates varied from 10 to 30 deaths for all non-accidental causes, from 1 to 5 for lung cancer, and from 2 to 6 for ischemic heart disease. The expected burden of preventable mortality would be even higher in the future due to the Spanish population growth. Taking into account the population older than 30 years in 2012, the absolute mortality impact estimate would increase approximately by 18%. Conclusions: Effective implementation of air quality measures in Spain, in a scenario with a short-term projection, would amount to an appreciable decline infine particle concentrations, and this, in turn, would lead to notable health-related benefits. Recent European cohort studies strengthen the evidence of an association between long-term exposure to fine particles and health effects, and could enhance the health impact quantification in Europe. Air quality models can contribute to improved assessment of air pollution health impact estimates, particularly in study areas without air pollution monitoring data.

Operational short term health impact assessment of air pollution modelling system over Europe

The last decade, scientific studies have indicated an association between air pollution to which people are exposed and wide range of adverse health outcomes. We have developed a tool which is based on a model (MM5-CMAQ) running over Europe with 50 km spatial resolution, based on EMEP annual emissions, to produce a short-term forecast of the impact on health. In order to estimate the mortality change (forecasted for the next 24 hours) we have chosen a log-linear (Poisson) regression form to estimate the concentration-response function. The parameters involved in the C-R function have been estimated based on epidemiological studies, which have been published. Finally, we have derived the relationship between concentration change and mortality change from the C-R function which is the final health impact function.

Interstitial defects stability in FeCr alloys vs Cr concentration

Finding adequate materials to withstand the demanding conditions in the future fusion and fission reactors is a real challenge in the development of these technologies. Structural materials need to sustain high irradiation doses and temperatures that will change the microstructure over time. A better understanding of the changes produced by the irradiation will allow for a better choice of materials, ensuring a safer and reliable future power plants. High-Cr ferritic/martensitic steels head the list of structural materials due to their high resistance to swelling and corrosion. However, it is well known that these alloys present a problem of embrittlement, which could be caused by the presence of defects created by irradiation as these defects act as obstacles for dislocation motion. Therefore, the mechanical response of these materials will depend on the type of defects created during irradiation. In this work, we address a study of the effect Cr concentration has on single interstitial defect formation energies in FeCr alloys.

Sub-bandgap spectral photo-response analysis of Ti supersaturated Si

We have analyzed the increase of the sheet conductance (ΔG□) under spectral illumination in high dose Ti implanted Si samples subsequently processed by pulsed-laser melting. Samples with Ti concentration clearly above the insulator-metal transition limit show a remarkably high ΔG□, even higher than that measured in a silicon reference sample. This increase in the ΔG□ magnitude is contrary to the classic understanding of recombination centers action and supports the lifetime recovery predicted for concentrations of deep levels above the insulator-metal transition.

Genome-Wide Analysis of the Response of Dickeya dadantii 3937 to Plant Antimicrobial Peptides

Antimicrobial peptides constitute an important factor in the defense of plants against pathogens, and bacterial resistance to these peptides have previously been shown to be an important virulence factor in Dickeya dadantii, the causal agent of soft-rot disease of vegetables. In order to understand the bacterial response to antimicrobial pep- tides, a transcriptional microarray analysis was performed upon treatment with sub-lethal concentration of thionins, a widespread plant peptide. In all, 36 genes were found to be overexpressed, and were classified according to their deduced function as i) transcriptional regulators, ii) transport, and iii) modification of the bacterial membrane. One gene encoding a uricase was found to be repressed. The majority of these genes are known to be under the control of the PhoP/PhoQ system. Five genes representing the different functions induced were selected for further analysis. The results obtained indicate that the presence of antimicrobial peptides induces a complex response which includes peptide-specific elements and general stress-response elements contributing differentially to the virulence in different hosts.

Stability of vacancy clusters in FeCr alloys: A study of the Cr concentration dependence

Fe–Cr based alloys are the leading structural material candidates in the design of next generation reactors due to their high resistance to swelling and corrosion. Despite these good properties there are others, such as embrittlement, which require a higher level of understanding in order to improve aspects such as safety or lifetime of the reactors. The addition of Cr improves the behavior of the steels under irradiation, but not in a monotonic way. Therefore, understanding the changes in the Fe–Cr based alloys microstructure induced by irradiation and the role played by the alloying element (Cr) is needed in order to predict the response of these materials under the extreme conditions they are going to support. In this work we perform a study of the effect of Cr concentration in a bcc Fe–Cr matrix on formation and binding energies of vacancy clusters up to 5 units. The dependence of the calculated formation and binding energy is investigated with two empirical interatomic potentials specially developed to study radiation damage in Fe–Cr alloys. Results are very similar for both potentials showing an increase of the defect stability with the cluster size and no real dependence on Cr concentration for the binding energy.

Reproductive long-term effects, endocrine response and fatty acid profile of rabbit does fed diets supplemented with n-3 fatty acids

The effect of a diet enriched with polyunsaturated n -3 fatty acids (PUFA) on endocrine, reproductive, and productive responses of rabbit females and the litters has been studied. Nulliparous does ( n = 125) were fed ad libitum from rearing to second weaning two diets supplemented with different fat sources: 7.5 g/kg lard for the control diet (group C; n = 63) or 15 g/kg of a commercial supplement containing a 50% ether extract and 35% of total fatty acids (FAs) as PUFA n -3 (Group P; n = 62). Dietary treatments did not affect apparent digestibility coefficients of nutrients, or reproductive variables of does including milk pro- duction, mortality and average daily gain of kits over two lactations. However, on Day 5 and 7 post-induction of ovulation, progesterone of Group P tended to increase to a greater extent than in does of Group C. Total PUFAs, n -6 and n -3 and eicosapentanoic (EPA) contents were greater in adipose tissues of does in Group P than in Group C. Docosapentaenoic acid (DPA), EPA, and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) concentrations were greater in peri-ovarian than in scapular fat with abdominal fat being intermediate in concentration. In PUFA sup- plemented does, kit mortality at the second parturition tended to be less than in control does. Also, kits born to does of the PUFA-supplemented group weighed more and were of greater length than from does of control group. In conclusion, effectiveness of dietary intervention on reproductive and performance response is greater in the second parity, which suggests an accumulative long-term beneficial effect of n -3 FA supplementation in reproductive rabbit does

Assessment of expected damage on buildings subjected to Lorca earthquake through an energy-based seismic index method and nonlinear dynamic response analyses

The city of Lorca (Spain) was hit on May 11th, 2011, by two consecutive earth-quakes of magnitudes 4.6 and 5.2 Mw, causing casualties and important damage in buildings. Many of the damaged structures were reinforced concrete frames with wide beams. This study quantifies the expected level of damage on this structural type in the case of the Lorca earth-quake by means of a seismic index Iv that compares the energy input by the earthquake with the energy absorption/dissipation capacity of the structure. The prototype frames investigated represent structures designed in two time periods (1994–2002 and 2003–2008), in which the applicable codes were different. The influence of the masonry infill walls and the proneness of the frames to concentrate damage in a given story were further investigated through nonlinear dynamic response analyses. It is found that (1) the seismic index method predicts levels of damage that range from moderate/severe to complete collapse; this prediction is consistent with the observed damage; (2) the presence of masonry infill walls makes the structure very prone to damage concentration and reduces the overall seismic capacity of the building; and (3) a proper hierarchy of strength between beams and columns that guarantees the formation of a strong column-weak beam mechanism (as prescribed by seismic codes), as well as the adoption of counter-measures to avoid the negative interaction between non-structural infill walls and the main frame, would have reduced the level of damage from Iv=1 (collapse) to about Iv=0.5 (moderate/severe damage)

Dietary xylanase increases hepatic vitamin E concentration of chickens fed wheat based diet

The study examined the effect of xylanase supplementation on apparent metabolizable energy (AME) and hepatic vitamin E and carotenoids in broiler chickens fed wheat based diets. A total of one hundred forty four male Ross 308 chickens were used in this study. Birds were randomly assigned to 3 dietary treatments (8 cages per treatment of 6 male broilers each) for 14 days from 7 to 21 day old. The control treatment was based on wheat-soyabean meal and was either unsupplemented or supplemented with either 1000 or 2000 xylanase units per kg diet. Orthogonal polynomial contrasts were used to test linear response to dietary xylanase activity. There was a positive linear relationship (P < 0.05) between dietary AME and doses of supplementary xylanase. A linear relationship (P < 0.05) was also observed between dosage of xylanase supplementation and hepatic vitamin E concentration and retention. In conclusion, xylanase supplementation improved dietary AME and increased hepatic vitamin E concentration which may have positive effects on the antioxidative status of the birds.

Productive performance of brown-egg laying pullets from hatching to 5 weeks of age as affected by fiber inclusion, feed form, and energy concentration of the diet

The effects of fiber inclusion, feed form, and energy concentration of the diet on the growth performance of pullets from hatching to 5 wk age were studied in 2 experiments. In Experiment 1, there was a control diet based on cereals and soybean meal, and 6 extra diets that included 2 or 4% of cereal straw, sugar beet pulp (SBP), or sunflower hulls (SFHs) at the expense (wt/wt) of the whole control diet. From hatching to 5 wk age fiber inclusion increased (P < 0.05) ADG and ADFI, and improved (P < 0.05) energy efficiency (EnE; kcal AMEn/g ADG), but body weight (BW) uniformity was not affected. Pullets fed SFH tended to have higher ADG than pullets fed SBP (P = 0.072) with pullets fed straw being intermediate. The feed conversion ratio (FCR) was better (P < 0.05) with 2% than with 4% fiber inclusion. In Experiment 2, 10 diets were arranged as a 2×5 factorial with 2 feed forms (mash vs. crumbles) and 5 levels of AMEn (2,850, 2,900, 2,950, 3,000, and 3,050 kcal/kg). Pullets fed crumbles were heavier and had better FCR than pullets fed mash (P < 0.001). An increase in the energy content of the crumble diets reduced ADFI and improved FCR linearly, but no effects were detected with the mash diets (P < 0.01 and P < 0.05 for the interactions). Feeding crumbles tended to improve BW uniformity at 5 wk age (P = 0.077) but no effects were detected with increases in energy concentration of the diet. In summary, the inclusion of moderate amounts of fiber in the diet improves pullet performance from hatching to 5 wk age. The response of pullets to increases in energy content of the diet depends on feed form with a decrease in feed intake when fed crumbles but no changes when fed mash. Feeding crumbles might be preferred to feeding mash in pullets from hatching to 5 wk age.

Productive performance of brown-egg laying pullets from hatching to 5 weeks of age as affected by fiber inclusion, feed form, and energy concentration of the diet1

The effects of fiber inclusion, feed form, and energy concentration of the diet on the growth performance of pullets from hatching to 5 wk age were studied in 2 experiments. In Experiment 1, there was a control diet based on cereals and soybean meal, and 6 extra diets that included 2 or 4% of cereal straw, sugar beet pulp (SBP), or sunflower hulls (SFHs) at the expense (wt/wt) of the whole control diet. From hatching to 5 wk age fiber inclusion increased (P < 0.05) ADG and ADFI, and improved (P < 0.05) energy efficiency (EnE; kcal AMEn/g ADG), but body weight (BW) uniformity was not affected. Pullets fed SFH tended to have higher ADG than pullets fed SBP (P = 0.072) with pullets fed straw being intermediate. The feed conversion ratio (FCR) was better (P < 0.05) with 2% than with 4% fiber inclusion. In Experiment 2, 10 diets were arranged as a 2×5 factorial with 2 feed forms (mash vs. crumbles) and 5 levels of AMEn (2,850, 2,900, 2,950, 3,000, and 3,050 kcal/kg). Pullets fed crumbles were heavier and had better FCR than pullets fed mash (P < 0.001). An increase in the energy content of the crumble diets reduced ADFI and improved FCR linearly, but no effects were detected with the mash diets (P < 0.01 and P < 0.05 for the interactions). Feeding crumbles tended to improve BW uniformity at 5 wk age (P = 0.077) but no effects were detected with increases in energy concentration of the diet. In summary, the inclusion of moderate amounts of fiber in the diet improves pullet performance from hatching to 5 wk age. The response of pullets to increases in energy content of the diet depends on feed form with a decrease in feed intake when fed crumbles but no changes when fed mash. Feeding crumbles might be preferred to feeding mash in pullets from hatching to 5 wk age.

Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces

This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development.